If you need help turning your financial uncertainty into a clear actionable plan, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected].

Introducing the FigTree Vault

My wife tells me it is ‘a concerning lack of hobbies’ that has led a 34-year-old man to spend his weekends in his office writing about investing but here we are.

While she is technically correct, I like to see it more as a personal vendetta against mainstream media. In case you haven’t realised by now, traditional media has one job…. To keep you coming back for more. That’s it, nothing else. Their priority is not to simply keep you informed or give you their honest opinions. They just want your eyeballs.

In the age of endless news, we find ourselves drowning in information but starved of honest opinions. That’s where I come in.

The last thing I want to be is another data aggregator filling up your inbox. So instead, I will focus on helping you understand what information is most important, what it means, and how to action it.

3 Things to expect from this Newsletter.

1. My writing is a way to stay connected with my clients and friends. Please reach out with any questions. I’m always happy to chat about investing with anyone who will listen.

2. This is not a news update. This is me sharing my honest opinion on what I see as the most relevant stories in the market. We may not always see eye-to-eye, but it would be boring if we did.

3. These newsletters will be short and sweet. You’re all busy people. I’ll filter out most of the nonsense and just focus on the main stories from each week.

Black Monday

So, we had a bit of a market sell off today.

Nvidia finished the day down 17% as China’s cheaper AI Model (DeepSeek) sparked a Tech wash-out.

Waking up to see Nasdaq futures down 4.5% is never easy but there are a few things to note.

This weakness wasn’t entirely unexpected. Many of the tech names have shown weakness since the middle of last year. We have spoken a lot about stretched valuations across this space over recent months and adjusted our portfolio exposure accordingly.

Despite this recent tech weakness, the S&P 500 had its highest weekly close in history last Friday. Sectors that have underperformed the market in recent history have finally started to chip in. Financials, Industrials, Consumer Discretionary and Communications have led the way and now Healthcare and Materials are starting to come around. 

Sector Rotation

For me, today was a ‘healthy sell off’ not a ‘panic sell off’. Frothy Tech names are consolidating while other sectors of the market are picking up the slack.

The Nasdaq finished down 3.1%, Nvidia lost almost $600 billion in a single day, and the Dow Jones index still managed to finish green for the day. That tells me the bleed is contained.

The rotation is real.

My View

Just because a certain sector of the market is consolidating doesn’t mean opportunities no longer exist.

Yes, the Nasdaq is selling off to start the year, but Industrial and Healthcare stocks have soared, Euro STOXX 50 closed at multi-decade highs, and the wash-out in China makes for an interesting (albeit riskier) contrarian play.

Value still exists; you just might have to look beyond the traditional tech names to find it for a change.

Oh, and did I mention, you can still fill your pockets with Treasury yield between 4.5% - 5%.

I'm open-minded to a major trend change. At current valuations a certain level of paranoia is mandatory, but the weight of the evidence continues to suggest that we want to spend our time looking for stocks to buy, not looking for stocks to sell.

In my view, despite the choppy price action over the last month and deterioration in breadth and momentum measures, the primary uptrends for the major market indices remain intact, and modest dips should be viewed as buying opportunities.

Thanks for reading

At FigTree, we help build, monitor and ensure you execute your financial plan. And as trusted advisor we will be there to help you overcome any stumbling block you encounter along the way.

I’m always happy to help wherever I can so if you want to learn more, please don’t hesitate to reach out to me at [email protected]

Mike 👋